Thursday, October 20, 2011

Israel traded 1,000 prisoners for one of its NSFs. What is the price of an SAF National Serviceman worth in a Gilad Shalit kidnapping scenario?


The deal to swap Israeli full-time National Serviceman Gilad Shalit for 1,027 Palestinians speaks volumes of how much Israel treasures the life of an Israeli citizen soldier.

If Singapore is placed in a similar crisis, what do you think the price of a Singapore Armed Forces (SAF) soldier will be worth? One price for a heartlander NSF with a White Horse worth potentially more? How far would Singapore go to win the freedom of a captured NSF?

Make no mistake, the 1:1,000 exchange rate may work wonderfully well for the battle-tested IDF and Israeli society. But such a calculus, if applied in the SAF's area of operations (AO) during a doomsday scenario, will only put more Singaporean lives at risk.

SAF mission planners who train to fight with full spectrum capabilities should add soldier swap exchange ratios to their tool kit. This is a scenario they need to think about and address long before boots hit the ground and bullets start flying.

As part of scenario planning, the Singaporean Ministry of Defence (MINDEF) and SAF need to mull over hard questions about the amount of effort that justifies securing the life of a captured Singaporean warfighter.

Whether the SAF serviceman or servicewoman is captured during a hot war or during an operation other than war (OOTW) will be irrelevant to the loved ones of any captive warfighter. What matters to them most will be the safe and expeditious return of their son or daughter.

For the family of Gilad, the journey home for their 25-year-old son took five long years after he was captured by Hamas gunmen and spirited away to the Gaza Strip. Israel is a country born in battle after centuries of diaspora. The strategic situation of Singapore - a fragile accidental nation - militates against such a long drawn impasse.

This explains why defence planners should mentally prepare for unexpected emergencies where captured soldiers are used as bargaining chips in strategic gamesmanship.

When hostile forces start viewing SAF personnel not as a deterrent nor as targets but as valuable negotiation tools, their vulnerability to snatch-and-grab operations will increase correspondingly.

Should diplomacy and deterrence fail, this vulnerability will rise in direct proportion to the amount of time the SAF will spend as an occupation force in hostile territory.

Knowing full well that the SAF will aim for a swift and decisive victory, an opponent who captures SAF servicemen for ransom (monetary or non monetary) can throw such drawer plans off-balance. So long as their captive has a heartbeat, the captors will wield the strategic initiative when dictating terms to the occupation force. The payoff for kidnappers is thus very high indeed.

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to imagine the pressure on homefront support for SAF operations that the kidnappers can exert.

Singaporean parents already fret over their sons on peacetime NS duty. What more during a hostile takeover of another country's territory when conflict termination is at best delayed and at worst, unattainable on Singaporean terms?

With such situations in mind, it is clear that SAF war games should induct Regulars, NSFs and NSmen to the possibility of nasty incidents during a hot war. Citizen soldiers need to know hard truths behind the SAF's game plan should they be tasked to execute manoeuvres practised repeatedly during war games such as Exercise Wallaby, now in full swing in Australia's Shoalwater Bay Training Area.

As the Internet matures and new forms of social media emerge, the likelihood that captors will exploit cyberspace to weaken or destabilise commitment to defence is very real.

Instead of following Israel's example in securing Gilad's freedom, MINDEF/SAF should focus its energy on conflict termination in the shortest possible timeframe.

This includes articulating the end game clearly to strengthen homefront support and make it unambiguously clear to hostile forces how a protracted armed struggle is not to their interest. At present, Singaporeans know the SAF has ample war machines to defend the Lion City, but few have any idea how conflict termination could be reached after the SAF's full force potential is uncaged.

In a hot war scenario, the pain of losing one captured SAF warfighter must be balanced by the cold reality that an Israeli-style prisoner swap (1: 1,000 ratio) could endanger Singapore's security in the absence of a lasting peace. In our context, a high exchange ratio may also underline the city state's low appetite for war by demonstrating it is weak and malleable during negotiations when the stakes are too high.

It is crucial for Singaporeans to understand and accept the painful reality that many more SAF lives could be placed at risk (or lost) when hostile forces, emboldened by any soldier swap calculus, proceed to expand their business with fresh meat.

A possible drawer plan against kidnappings might be for the SAF to use its capability overmatch until the said SAF serviceman is returned safe and sound.

Civilian elements should also be held responsible for any act of aggression by their clan. The response could include designating the premises of the surviving family members of perpetrators or safe houses they are known to have used as legitimate entities for the SAF's sensor-to-shooter network to work with.

In the event of a hostage taking, SAF mission planners should be granted full freedom to translate hostile premises into end point coordinates for RSAF precision guided munitions, Mark 20 CBUs and improved conventional munitions and cargo rounds employed by the Singapore Artillery.

In like manner, the value chain of whistle-blowers should be protected. This would incentivise whistle-blowers to point out hostile elements in their neighbourhood, therefore strengthening hearts and minds outreach efforts by the 800-series battalions. If necessary, special action groups should be set up to motivate civilians to cooperate with the SAF.

The preventive detention of people of Japanese origin by the United States government during World War Two is an example of how a responsible government should do whatever it takes to protect its populace.

A hostile entity that does not respect the rules of war cannot expect to exploit the boundaries and constraints set by the rules of civilised conflict.

And as the language of force is often the only signal hostile minds can process, the intelligence preparation of the battlefield by SAF mission planners should include a thorough, impassive and realistic appraisal of the enemy's value chain and entities they hold dear.

Options to address the enemy's value chain - forcefully, relentlessly and without remorse - if Middle Eastern snatch-and-grab tactics are attempted in the SAF's AO must be prepared, tested, refined and updated as part of scenario planning.

Hostile forces must know that if they open an account with the SAF by copying the Hamas playbook, the SAF will settle that account at a time, place and method of its own choosing. The escalation ladder starts from .308 Lapua rounds fired by SAF Commandos for a brain stem kill and goes all the way to the heavy stuff you hang on F-15SGs that can reconfigure a hostile neighbourhood.

If hostile elements declare open season on the SAF with no bag limit, then they must realise that such self-declared ground rules come with a hefty penalty and the IDF does not hold a monopoly on the creative use of combat power.

12 comments:

Anonymous said...

"The preventive detention of people of Japanese origin by the United States government during World War Two is an example of how a responsible government should do whatever it takes to protect its populace."

So Singapore should get Malay NSmen to start rounding up Malays in Singapore?

Anonymous said...

Is it white horse? worth more...

Anonymous said...

election year in isreal???

Anonymous said...

Sir,

1) The UNited States government did not detain Japanese Americans in WW2 with the sole intent on protecting them from a potential populace. This is an insult to history.

2) If it was so easy to put a Laputa round in the would be kidnappers, Israel would have done so. Please anchor your perspective within the realm of reality..

3) Israel values it's citizen soldiers and runs a policy whereby if possible, no soldier is left behind dead or alive. This is crucial to the morale of the army.Whether the i:1000 trade is equitable is of course a different matter.

But if Singaporean soldiers have any doubt in their mind that the SAF would do all in their power (short of calling John Rambo from retirement) to help retrieve them, there will be little will to fight.

Jezebella said...

I'm not sure why people keeps wanting to compare Singapore and Israel in this aspect; it is inappropriate and it feels like people are making use of Gilad Shalit (in the bad sense).

All I can say is, different country, different situation/circumstances, different government, different policies.

stngiam said...

"The preventive detention of people of Japanese origin by the United States government during World War Two is an example of how a responsible government should do whatever it takes to protect its populace."

Going back to how we all spoke back in NS, you are f*ing out of your mind. Then again, you seem willing to endorse the racism inherent in the creation of the State of Israel so that says a lot in itself too.

Paul said...

The US government has admitted that the selective detention of Japanese Americans while leaving Germans free to move around was a racist act. I am surprised that you are defending it!

I think that soliders from the SAF would be more confident of fighting for our country if they Knew that MINDEF valued their lives as much as 1000 prisoners. IF they believed that they should not be traded for prisoners, I am pretty confident that even more would be on the first planes to Australia during the POT

Anonymous said...

Read up on the 442nd Regimental Combat Team. Do not conflate the actions of the IJA with the Japanese-Americans in CONUS.

That act of detention was shameful, and did not do anything to advance relations between Asian-Americans and other ethnicities.

You build and secure a nation based on shared ideals, not through bogeymen.

I am very disappointed in your choice of analogy.

Anonymous said...

In Singapore, "pragmatism" comes before principles. This means prices, rules and decisions can change based on "circumstances beyond our control". In such a complex world, it is necessary for the government to change and "adapt swiftly". If the government were to adhere to one hard and fast rule, that would be the true irresponsibility. Also, everything changes in hindsight when more information is available. As it is, I have done a good job raising you. I don't see how you can blame me, and not vote for me again.

Anonymous October 21, 2011 11:57 AM: "Preventive detention" is ISA, it is detaining someone before they commit a crime. It is not "protective custody" for the detainee's sake.

Anonymous said...

Collective punishment and the targeting of civilians is not good.

Anonymous said...

In all probability, some excuse will be found to keep these fortunate sons out of the combat zone.

Like "These Prominent Persons experience a risk of kidnap not suffered by other soldiers and servicemen. We are a small country and can't expect everyone to act like Prince Harry."

Anonymous said...

ICM is renounced by most countries.